The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations is forecasting a small increase in world wheat output this year.
Released Friday, the FAO’s preliminary forecast puts 2025 global wheat output at 796 million tonnes, up nearly1% from a year earlier, as production is forecast to rebound in the EU after overly wet conditions last year led to the worst harvest in 17 years.
In addition to a slightly larger wheat planted area for the EU, the FAO is also projecting a modest increase in yields for the bloc, although it warned that developing dry conditions in the east and excessive rainfall in the west, particularly in France, may limit the production increase.
US all wheat production is forecast by the FAO to decline slightly, down to 52.5 million tonnes from 53.65 million in 2024-25, as an increase in winter wheat area – along with a likely rise in spring wheat plantings – is expected to be offset by lower yields.
In Canada, early FAO projections indicate an expansion in wheat plantings, supported by better soil moisture conditions and expectations of strong prices later in the year. Assuming a return to average yields, new-crop Canadian wheat production is forecast at 35 million tonnes, in line with 2024’s output.
As for the world’s largest wheat exporter, Russia, the FAO is projecting a 2% fall in production to 80 million tonnes. Winter wheat area in Russia is down for the third straight year, the FAO said, adding that low soil moisture levels and thin snow cover, which raises the risk of frost damage, also appear set to crimp output.
