Led by corn, the International Grains Council (IGC) is projecting a record global harvest of total grains in 2025-26.
In its first full set of new-crop projections on Thursday, the IGC pegged total grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.368 billion tonnes, up about 2.7% from a year earlier. Despite relatively low beginning stocks, the rebound in production is forecast to boost total supply to a new high, with projected consumption rising 1% to 2.367 billion.
After three years of contraction, 2025-26 global ending stocks of total grains are estimated to edge higher – up 1 million tonnes from a year earlier to 578 million - “but with inventories still unusually tight.”
New-crop world corn production is seen by the IGC at 1.269 billion tonnes, an increase of 4.3% from a year earlier, as the US crop is projected to rise the same amount to 394.2 million tonnes. Brazil and Argentina corn production is expected higher as well, with Brazil up to 130 million tonnes from the current year’s forecasted 123.3 million, and Argentina up to 59.1 million from 53 million.
At 280 million tonnes, 2025-26 world corn ending stocks are projected to rise 6 million year-over-year but remain well below the 2023-24 stocks level of 296 million.
World wheat production for 2025-26 is estimated by the IGC at 807 million tonnes, an increase of 8 million from the forecast for the current year. EU production is seen rebounding to 132.9 million tonnes following last year’s rain-soaked harvest of just 119.4 million, while the crop in Russia, the world’s No. 1 exporter, is pegged at 80.6 million tonnes, down from 81.3 million in 2024-25. Canadian output is estimated up 1 million tonnes to 36 million, with the US crop seen at 52.4 million, down from 53.7 million in 2024-25.
Already forecast at a decade low in 2024-25, world wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are forecast by the IGC to tighten further, down 6 million to 259 million.
After reaching a new high of 418 million tonnes in 2024-25, new-crop global soybean production is estimated 2.1% higher to 427 million. Larger crops are expected out of South American again, with the Brazilian crop seen at 173.5 million tonnes, versus 167.5 million forecast for this year. The Argentina crop is estimated at 50.5 million tonnes, compared to 48 million in 2024-25.
Global soybean ending stocks are projected to rise 1 million tonnes year-over-year to 83 million in 2025-26.
