The condition of the 2025 US winter wheat crop has declined from last fall and a year earlier but still beat trade expectations.
Monday’s USDA weekly crop progress report, the first for the current growing season, pegged the nationwide winter wheat crop at 48% good to excellent as of Sunday. That’s down from 55% good to excellent in the final report for 2024 at the end of November and below last year’s initial rating of 56% in early April. However, it was slightly above the average pre-report trade guess of 47% good to excellent.
Meanwhile, 21% of the crop was rated in poor to very poor condition as of Sunday, up from 12% in November and last spring.
The 2025 US winter wheat crop got off to a poor start after being planted into overly dry conditions last fall. Excellent moisture in November led to a strong rebound in the condition of the crop heading into winter, but the taps have largely turned off since. Crops were also hit by bouts of extreme cold in January and February before being buffeted by high winds in March on the southern Plains. Crops in some parts of the Plains were also nicked by subfreezing temperatures over the weekend.
In the No. 1 production state of Kansas, the winter wheat crop was rated 51% good to excellent as of Sunday, down from 55% in November and 49% a year ago. At 42% good to excellent, the condition of the Oklahoma crop was down 6 points from November and far below 68% at this time last year.
The Soft Red crop in Michigan was reported at 50% good to excellent, down a major 27 points from November and below 62% a year ago. The Ohio crop was rated 60% good to excellent as of Sunday, versus 70% in November and 67% a year earlier.
Today’s report also showed some minor progress in both corn and spring wheat planting.
The American corn crop was estimated at 2% planted as of Sunday, 1 point behind last year but on par with the five-year average and pre-report expectations. Most of the planting to date has been limited to the southern states, including Texas and South Carolina.
National spring wheat planting was estimated at 3% complete, in line with last year and the average and 1 point ahead of the average trade guess.
Planting in the top production state of North Dakota was pegged at 1% complete as of Sunday, on par with the state average, with Montana at 2% - also in line with the average. An estimated 9% of the South Dakota spring wheat crop was already planted, compared to 4% last year and 6% on average.
