Thanks to mainly to revisions to past crop years, Canadian all wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 are poised to see a significant increase.
National all wheat ending stocks for the current crop year were pegged at 5.05 million tonnes in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Wednesday. That is up sharply from the August estimate of just 2.8 million and above the revised 2023-24 stocks of 4.583 million.
Durum ending stocks for 2024-25 are now seen at 1.05 million tonnes, up from 800,000 in August and 576,000 a year earlier, while wheat (excl durum) stocks doubled from last month to 4 million, versus 4.007 million in 2023-24.
This month’s heavier ending stocks estimates can be mainly attributed to Statistics Canada’s August crop production report, which contained historical revisions that raised both production and ending stocks for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 crop years, increases that were then carried forward into 2024-25.
Today’s supply-demand estimates also reflect StatsCan’s Sept. 16 crop production report, which trimmed this year’s expected durum and wheat (excl durum) output from last month.
Aside from the revisions to the earlier crop years and the slight downgrade in 2024 expected production compared to last month, Ag Canada made few other changes to its wheat supply-demand estimates.
Projected 2024-24 durum and wheat (excl durum) exports were left unchanged from August at 4.8 million and 20.5 million tonnes, respectively. Total estimated domestic use for the two crops was lowered only slightly from last month.
At $325/tonne, the 2024-25 average expected durum was left steady from August but down $100 from 2023-24, while the wheat (excl durum) price was unchanged at $330, up from $316 the previous year.
