The USDA has trimmed its 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks forecast from last month, while global stocks have gotten heavier.
Monthly supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Thursday put 2024-25 US soybean ending stocks at 375 million bu, down 5 million from the March forecast but still well above 342 million in 2023-24 and 264 million in 2022-23. Global stocks were pegged at 122.47 million tonnes, an increase of about 1 million from March and up from 115.27 million a year earlier.
The US stocks estimate was slightly below the average trade guess of 382 million bu, while global stocks came in about 500,000 tonnes above expectations.
On the US side, exports were left steady from last month at 1.825 billion bu, up from 1.695 billion the previous year. However, imports were raised 5 million bu to 25 million, 4 million higher than in 2023-24. The crush was raised slightly from last month, up 10 million bu, to 2.42 million bu.
Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered this month based on pace to date – down to 13.25 billion lbs from 13.45 billion. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil, the USDA said.
The USDA left its 2024-25 Argentina and Brazil soybean production estimates steady from March at 49 million and 169 million tonnes, respectively. Exports for the two countries were also unchanged from March at 4.5 million and 105.5 million tonnes. However, based on a review of disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023-24 soybean crop was revised 1.5 million tonnes higher to 154.5 million, which helps to explain the relatively large month-over-month increase in global soybean ending stocks.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is unchanged this month at $9.95/bu, down from $12.40 last year. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 from march to $300/ short ton, versus $384.11 a year ago, and the soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents/lb, down from 47.28 cents in 2023-24.
Soybean futures were trading 8-13 cents/bu higher this afternoon.
