The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) is projecting an even larger 2024-25 Brazil corn crop but fewer exports.
A FAS report this week pegged total expected Brazilian corn output at 128 million tonnes, 1 million above the official USDA estimate in December and up 6 million or about 5% from the previous year. But despite the larger crop, FAS dropped its 2024-25 marketing year export forecast to 48 million tonnes from its original projection of 51 million due to less competitive Brazilian prices in the international market. With the reduction, the FAS export estimate now falls in line with the USDA forecast.
The upward revision in expected Brazilian corn production was attributed to improved prices, lower production costs, and greater optimism over better weather conditions which are expected to lead to an 1.4% year-over-year increase in planted area to 55.1 million acres.
“As corn prices gain attractiveness once again and with reduced production costs, farmers are more inclined to increase sowing,” the FAS report said. “In addition, the end of the El Nino weather phenomenon in favor of La Nina, should bring better crop development.”
However, the FAS report warned that pests are already having an impact on first-crop Brazilian corn in some areas of the country. In the corn production states of Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, there have been several reports of harmful effects from corn leafhopper – the same pest that devastated the 2023-24 Argentina corn crop. In Minas Gerais, there have been reports of crop destruction, with losses ranging from 70% to 90% in certain varieties of corn, the report said.
There are also worries about planting delays for Brazil’s second crop or safrinha corn, which accounts for more than three-quarters of total production.
In Brazil, corn is planted in rotation with soybean, and delays in the latter may significantly affect second-crop corn yields. In Mato Grosso and Parana, for example, soybean planting was delayed because of heavy rains, in turn making it hard to plant corn on time.
