Donald Trump’s victory in last month’s presidential election has apparently brightened the mood of US farmers.
The Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer - which is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the country - jumped 30 points to 145 in November, the highest since May 2021 and way up from just 88 in September, when it touched an eight-year low.
The November survey was conducted Nov. 11-15, after the Nov. 5 election in which Trump handily defeated his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.
Farmer responses to survey questions in November were almost universally more positive compared to October. For example, one-third of November’s respondents said they expect their operation to be better off financially a year from now, compared to just 19% who felt that way in October. Further, 34% percent of farmers in November said they expect good times financially for the U.S. agricultural sector in the next 12 months compared to just 15% of respondents in October.
When asked to look ahead five years, over half (52%) of November’s respondents said they expect U.S. agriculture to experience widespread good times compared to 34% who felt that way in October. The increase in optimism spread to farmers’ investment outlook, with 22% of November respondents reporting it is a good time to make large investments compared to 15% of farmers surveyed who felt that way in October.
At least some of the increased farmer optimism in November compared to October was linked to expectations for a less restrictive regulatory environment under Trump and for taxes to at least remain static.
However, farmers in the November survey did express some concern about the future of agricultural trade under a new administration. Forty-two percent of respondents in the November survey said they think it is either “likely” or “very likely” that U.S. agriculture is at risk of a “trade war” that results in a significant decrease in exports.
