The USDA left its 2024-25 US corn supply-demand outlook unchanged from last month but tightened its global view.
In its monthly update on Tuesday, the USDA held its US corn ending stocks estimate for the current marketing year at 1.54 billion, steady from January and down from 1.763 billion the previous year. On the other hand, world corn ending stocks were trimmed 3 million tonnes from last month to 290.31 million, down further from 315.81 million in 2023-24.
Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were looking for a slight reduction in US corn ending stocks from last month, while global stocks came in about 2 million tonnes below the average trade guess. Corn futures were trading little changed following the report’s noon hour ET release, down 2-3 cents/bu.
Amid unfavourable heat and dryness in January and early February, the USDA lowered its estimate of 2024-25 Argentina corn production by 1 million tonnes from last month to 50 million, now on par with the previous year’s crop. Somewhat surprisingly, the USDA also cut its Brazil production estimate by an identical 1 million tonnes. The Brazil crop is now seen at 126 million tonnes, still above the 2023-24 crop of 122 million. The USDA attributed the reduced Brazil production forecast to slow second-crop planting progress in the center-west region, where overly wet conditions have delayed the soybean harvest.
The trade was expecting a more modest reduction in the Argentina corn production forecast and was anticipating the Brazilian crop to get a bit bigger, rather than smaller.
With the downgrade in the production estimate, Brazil 2024-25 corn exports were similarly reduced 1 million tonnes from last month to 46 million, compared to 39.5 million a year earlier. Projected Argentina exports were unchanged from February at 36 million tonnes, up 1 million from last year. Ukraine corn production was unchanged at 26.5 million tonnes, but exports were reduced 1 million to 22 million, well down from 29.49 million in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, expected 2024-25 China corn imports were slashed 3 million tonnes from last month to 10 million, far below 23.41 million the previous year.
The USDA’s projected season-average farm price for corn is raised a dime this month to $4.35/bu, below $4.55 a year ago.
