The USDA made just minor adjustments to its 2024-25 US corn supply-demand estimates on Friday, with a small increase in production offset by lighter supplies and higher export demand.
Based on a 0.2 bu/acre increase in this year’s average expected yield to 183.8 bu/acre - and a static harvested area estimate of 82.7 million acres – this year’s corn crop was raised 15 million bu from last month to 15.203 billion, down 1% from last year.
However, that increase was more than offset by a 52-million bu reduction in beginning stocks, to reflect the government’s Sept. 30 grain stocks report. The decline in beginning stocks trimmed the total estimated 2024-25 corn supply to 16.989 billion bu from 17.022 billion in September, although still up from 16.729 billion in 2023-24.
On the demand side, projected 2024-25 exports were bumped up 25 million bu from last month to 2.325 billion, versus 2.292 billion a year earlier.
The bottom line was a 58-million bu cut in the 2024-25 ending stocks estimate from September to 1.999 billion bu, still up from 1.760 billion the previous year.
The yield and production estimates just barley topped the average pre-report trade guesses of 183.5 bu/acre and 15.174 billion bu, while the ending stocks estimate was slightly higher than the average guess of 1.988 billion. Corn futures were trading 2-3 cents lower after the noon hour ET release of the report.
Despite current dryness, the USDA left its 2024-25 South American corn production estimates steady from last month, with Brazil holding at 127 million tonnes and Argentina at 51 million, up from 122 million and 50 million a year earlier, respectively. Ukraine corn output was trimmed 1 million tonnes from last month to 26.2 million, down 32.5 million in 2023-24, amid dryness as well.
China corn imports for 2024-25 were lowered 2 million tonnes from last month to 19 million, versus 23.5 million last year.
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 306.52 million tonnes this month, down from 308.35 million in September and 312.65 million a year ago.
The estimated 2024-25 US season average corn price was left unchanged from last month at $4.10/bu, down from $4.55 in 2023-24.
