The USDA has tightened its 2024-25 US corn outlook amid a hotter export pace.
The USDA’s monthly supply-demand update on Thursday pegged US corn ending stocks for the current marketing year at 1.465 billion bu, down 75 million from last month’s forecast and below the average pre-report trade guess of 1.512 billion. If accurate, ending stocks would be almost 17% below the previous year’s 1.763 billion.
The entire decline in the ending stocks estimate from March is due to a 100-million bu increase in the 2024-25 export forecast to 2.55 billion, up from 2.292 billion a year earlier. The higher export forecast was only partially offset by a 25-million bu reduction in expected feed and residual use to 5.75 billion bu, based on disappearance during the December-February quarter as indicated in the March 31 grain stocks report.
The USDA said this month’s upward revision in exports reflects “the pace of sales and shipments to date and relatively competitive U.S. prices.”
World corn production for 2024-25 was revised slightly higher this month to 1.215 billion tonnes, with with increases for the EU, Tanzania, and Honduras partially offset by declines for Moldova, Cambodia, and Kenya. Projected Argentina and Brazil production for 2024-25 was left steady from March at 50 million and 126 million tonnes, respectively. Ukraine corn output was unchanged as well, holding at 26.8 million tonnes. Going into the report, most traders and analysts were anticipating small downgrades for both South American countries.
China corn imports, at an estimated 8 million tonnes, are unchanged from last month and down sharply from 23.41 million in 2023-24. Imports for Mexico, the No. 1 buyer of American corn, were raised 500,000 tonnes from last month to 25 million, up modestly from 24.76 million a year earlier.
World corn ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 287.65 million tonnes this month, down from 288.94 million in March and well below 314.33 million a year ago. Trade guesses had world corn ending stocks at 288.3 million tonnes for this month.
The 2024-25 season-average corn price received by US producers is unchanged this month at $4.35/bu, down from $4.55 in 2023-24.
Corn futures were trading 4-7 cents/bu higher this afternoon.
