Rather than more, there will be less wheat in the ground in the US this year.
The USDA’s prospective plantings report on Monday estimated 2025 nationwide all wheat area at 45.35 million acres, down 2% from last year’s 46.079 million and potentially the second smallest American wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
The report put winter wheat area for harvest this year at 33.315 million acres. That is down less than 1% from last year’s 33.39 million but 2% below the government’s forecast in January. Meanwhile, spring wheat intentions, at 10.02 million acres, are down 6% from a year ago, while durum area is seen 2% lower at 2.02 million.
Going into today’s report, the trade was looking for an increase in all wheat planted area for 2025, with the average guess coming at 46.5 million. Winter wheat area was seen by the trade at 33.9 million acres, with spring wheat at 10.5 million and durum at 2 million.
Wheat futures were showing gains ranging from 6 to 12 cents/bu across all three exchanges this afternoon.
The USDA put national Hard Red Winter planted area for 2025 at 23.6 million acres, down about 400,000 from the January estimate and below 24.1 million last year. Soft Red area was reported at 6.09 million, compared to 6.44 million in January and 6.14 million a year ago.
In the largest winter wheat production state of Kansas, planted area for harvest this year is now estimated at 7.3 million acres, down 100,000 from the January estimate and 4% below 2024. Oklahoma planted area is seen at 4.15 million acres, versus 4.25 million in January and down 5% on the year. In the Soft Red state of Michigan, winter wheat planted area is estimated at 540,000 acres, down 10,000 from January but still 35% higher than last year. Ohio winter wheat area, at 570,000 acres, is down sharply from the January estimate of 660,000 although still 10% higher year-over-year.
In the largest production state of North Dakota, 2025 spring wheat intentions are reported at 5.05 million acres, down 6% from last year’s 5.35 million. Montana spring wheat acres are seen falling 12% to 2.15 million acres. On the other hand, Minnesota growers said they intend to increase spring wheat acres by 3% to 1.26 million acres this year. South Dakota spring wheat intentions, at 660,000 acres, are steady from 2024.
For durum, North Dakota acres for 2025 are estimated at 1.19 million acres, an 8% increase from a year earlier. In contrast, Montana durum acres are projected to fall 14% to 760,000.
