US and global wheat stockpiles for 2024-25 have both been revised higher this month. But while American stocks are now up even more sharply from a year ago, the world supply is still trending in the opposite direction.
The USDA’s regular monthly supply-demand update on Thursday raised US all wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year by 27 million bu from month to 846 million bu. That is 20 million bu above the average pre-report trade estimate and now a hefty 22% above the previous year’s ending stocks of 696 million bu. Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 were raised 600,000 tonnes from last month to 260.7 million. However, that is still down 3% on the year and the lowest since 2015-16.
The increase in this month’s US wheat ending stocks estimate is partially due to a 10-million bu increase in projected imports to 150 million bu, amid heavier inbound shipments of Hard Red Spring, White, Hard Red Winter and durum. If accurate, US wheat imports would be up from 138 million a year earlier and the highest since 2017-18.
Amid higher imports, the USDA lowered some of its demand estimates. The 2024-25 US wheat export forecast was dropped 15 million bu from last month to 820 million, due to smaller shipments of Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter. Domestic use was also trimmed from March, down 2 million bu on reduced seed use, given the decline in winter wheat plantings for harvest this year.
The USDA lowered its 2024-25 world wheat production estimate slightly from last month, down to 796.85 million tonnes from 797.23 million in March, mostly due to a downgrade for the EU.
World wheat consumption is forecast 1.4 million tonnes lower this month at 805.2 million, primarily on lower food, seed, and industrial use for India and China. Projected 2024-25 global trade is cut 1.3 million tonnes to 206.8 million, mostly on lower export forecasts for Russia, Australia, and the EU that are only partly offset by increases for Canada and Ukraine.
Russia exports were cut 1 million tonnes from last month to 44 million, while projected shipments from Australia and the EU were lowered 500,000 tonnes to 25.5 million and 26.5 million. On the other hand, expected Canadian wheat exports were raised 500,000 tonnes to 26.5 million, with Ukraine up an identical amount to 16 million.
At 3.5 million tonnes, projected China wheat imports were halved from March and are down from 13.64 million in 2023-24.
All told, global wheat exports for 2024-25 are expected to be 7% lower than the previous year.
The estimated US season average farm price for wheat is unchanged this month at $5.50/bu, well down from $6.96 in 2023-24.
Wheat futures were trading between 4-10 cents/bu lower this afternoon.
