The 2024-25 global wheat outlook is considerably heavier this month, with US wheat ending stocks also pushing higher.
In its monthly supply-demand update Tuesday, the USDA raised its 2024-25 world wheat production forecast by 3.4 million tonnes from February to 797.23 million, up from 791.21 million in 2023-24. Although expected global consumption was raised nearly 3 million tonnes from February, the larger crop helped lead to 2.5-million tonne increase in projected ending stocks to 260.1 million, still down from 269.5 million a year earlier but well above the average pre-report trade guess of 257.3 million.
On the US side, the USDA raised its 2024-25 wheat ending stocks estimate by 25 million bu from February to 819 million bu, versus 696 million in 2023-24 and 570 million in 2022-23. US stocks also topped pre-report trade estimates, with futures trading 4-6 cents lower.
Much of this month’s increase in global production was due to a 2.11-million tonne increase in the Australian crop to 34.11 million, the third largest Aussie crop on record. The higher estimate is based on the latest Australian government forecast, with most of the higher production in Western Australia and New South Wales, the USDA said.
The Argentina crop was revised higher as well, up to 18.5 million tonnes from 17.7 million in February, with Ukraine up 500,000 tonnes to 23.4 million. Russian production was bumped 100,000 tonnes higher to 81.6 million, still well down from 91.5 million last year.
With the larger crop, Australian exports were raised 1 million tonnes from last month to 26 million, with expected Ukraine and Argentina shipments steady at 15.5 million and 11.5 million, respectively. EU exports were cut 1 million tonnes to 27 million, and Russia was lowered 500,000 to 45 million.
China’s wheat imports were cut to 6.5 million tonnes this month, down from 8 million in February and well below 13.64 million in 2023-24.
This month’s higher US wheat ending stocks estimate reflects a 10-million bu increase in imports to 140 million, along with a 15-million bu cut in exports to 835 million, based on Census exports through January and expectations for sales and shipments for the remainder of the marketing year.
The projected US season-average farm price for wheat is down a nickel this month at $5.50, compared to $6.96 a year ago.
Today’s report reflects American tariffs on China, and China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which include a 15% levy on wheat. It does not reflect any American trade action against Canadian and Mexico goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement – which includes most ag products - as those planned 25% tariffs have been delayed until April. Likewise, US reciprocal tariffs are not scheduled to begin until early April.
Canada’s March 4 retaliatory tariffs against $30 billion in US goods remain in place, and are accounted for in the report, although there appears to be little to no impact on actual ag supply-demand dynamics.
