The 2024-25 US soybean outlook has tightened markedly this month.
The USDA in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday, lowered its US soybean ending stocks estimate to 380 million bu. That is down a hefty 90 million bu from last month and falls well below the average pre-report trade guess of 457 million, although it remains up from 264 million and 342 million the previous two years.
The fall in ending stocks from last month is due to a smaller-than-expected 2024 American crop. Today’s report lowered this year’s average soybean yield estimate to 50.7 bu/acre, down 1 bu from December and just ever slightly above the 2023 average of 50.6 bu. With the reduction in the average yield, combined with a 200,000-acre cut in harvested area to 86.1 million, the 2024 soybean production estimate was dropped 95 million bu to 4.366 billion, still up about 5% on the year.
The drop in production was only partially offset by a 5-million bu increase in projected imports to 20 million,
The month-over-month yield and production cuts were also sharper than expected by traders and analysts, with the soybean market trading 13-23 cents/bu higher this afternoon.
Despite recent dryness, the USDA held its 2024-25 Argentina soybean production estimate steady from last month at 52 million tonnes, up from 48.21 million in 2023-24. Expected Brazil production was left unchanged as well, holding at 169 million tonnes, compared to 153 million in 2023-24. Analysts and traders had been looking for a slight reduction in the Argentina crop, and an increase for Brazil to 170 million.
China’s expected soybean imports for 2024-25 were unchanged from December at 109 million tonnes, down from 112 million a year earlier.
Partly due to reductions in the US and Brazil, global soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are forecasted at 128.37 million tonnes this month, down by 3.5 million tonnes from December and below the average trade guess of 132.2 million.
At $10.20/bu, the estimated US season average soybean price for 2024-25 is unchanged from last month but well down from $12.40 a year earlier. The average expected soybean meal price is up $10 from December to $310/short ton, while the soybean oil price projection of 43 cents/lb is unchanged.
