Corn futures may have responded positively to Monday’s USDA grain stocks report, but the big picture remains one of heavy supplies.
Released at the noon hour ET, the report pegged total US corn stockpiles as of Sept. 1 (ending stocks for the now concluded 2023-24 crop year) at 1.76 billion bu. That was about 80 million bu below the average pre-report trade guess and below the September USDA estimate of 1.846 billion, helping to power the December futures to a 6-cent gain in the day’s trading.
However, Sept. 1 corn stocks were still 29% above a year earlier and the highest in four years, with a potentially record large 2024 US corn crop still on the way.
Of the total corn stocks, 780 million bu were being stored on-farm, up 29% year over year. At 980 million bu, off-farm stocks were up about 30%. June through August disappearance was estimated at 3.24 billion bu, up 19%, or 530 million bu, from 2.74 billion bu during the same period in 2023.
The report also trimmed last year’s US corn production, dropping it by just over 1 million bu to about 15.341 billion bu.
For soybeans, Sept. 1 stocks came in at 342 million bu, also up 29% from last year. That compares to the average trade guess of 347 million, and to the September USDA estimate of 340 million. As with corn, the report confirmed a sharp increase in old-crop soybean stocks, just as farmers are poised to harvest what could be a record crop this year.
November soybeans dropped 8 cents/bu on the news in trading yesterday.
Soybeans stored on farms as of Sept. 1 totaled 111 million bu, up a hefty 54% from last year, while off-farm storage totaled 231 million bu, up just 20% from last year. June through August disappearance was estimated at 628 million bu, up about 18% from the same period in 2023.
Last year’s soybean harvest was revised slightly lower as well, down 2.62 million from the previous estimate of 4.165 billion.
All wheat in storage, both on and off farm, totaled 1.99 billion bu as of Sept. 1, up 12% from Sept. 1, 2023 and near the average trade guess of 1.992 billion. Wheat stored on farm was estimated to be 664 million bu, up 11% year over year, while off-farm stocks were 1.32 billion bu, were up 13% year over year.
Durum wheat stocks in all positions on Sept. 1, 2024 totaled 67.3 million bu, up 17% from a year ago, while oat stocks were down 13% at 65.2 million bu and barley stocks were 14% lower at 154 million bu.
