Statistics Canada has raised its 2024 dry pea production estimate from last month but trimmed its lentil outlook.
Updated model-based production estimate released by the federal agency on Monday pegged this year’s national dry pea crop at 3.16 million tonnes, up from the late August forecast of 3.007 million and now 21.1% above last year. However, the crop would still be down from the 2022 harvest of 3.423 million. At 3.134 million acres, estimated 2024 pea harvested area is up from 2.964 million a year earlier, while the average expected yield of 37 bu/acre is up from 35.3 bu in August and 32.3 bu in 2023.
On the other hand, lentil production is now seen at 2.593 million tonnes, compared to the August estimate of 2.774 million but still 44% above last year. Harvested area increased almost 15% to 4.145 million acres, while the average yield, at 1,379 lbs/acre, was revised down from 1,476 lbs in August but remains up from 1,101 lbs last year.
Canary output is forecast at 161,843 tonnes this year, a 44.2% increase from the 2023 crop of 112,210 but basically steady from the August estimate. Harvested area is estimated about 30,000 acres higher from last year at 284,300, with the average expected yield up nearly 29% at 1,255 lbs/acre.
At 327,200 tonnes, projected chickpea production was trimmed from 330,399 tonnes in August but remains up almost 106% last year’s output of 159,100 tonnes. Harvested area is expected up 48.5% to 467,400, with the average yield at 1,543 lbs/acre, down slightly from 1,558 lbs last month but up from 1,115 lbs in 2023.
The 2024 mustard crop is pegged at 210,678 tonnes, up 10.3% from 191,000 in August and 23.4% above the 2023 crop of 170,710. Harvested area is expected lower, down to 586,700 acres from 619,300 last year, but the average yield more than offsets that decline, rising to 792 lbs/acre, compared to 718 lbs in August and 608 lbs a year ago.
Flax output is down significantly from last month, falling 11.5% from the August estimate of 300,128 tonnes to 265,333 – now 2.7% below last year. The average expected yield was revised down to 21.6 bu/acre from 24.4 bu last month, but that is still up from 18.2 bu in 2023. At 483,800 acres, estimated flax harvested area is down from 589,400 in 2023.
Sunflower output is now seen at 36,136 tonnes, a marginal decline from 36,686 in August but about 61% below the 2023 crop of 92,468. At 1,832 lbs/acre, the average expected yield is down 28 lbs from last month and below 2,076 lbs a year ago. Harvested area is projected to fall to 43,600 acres versus 98,200 last year.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
