The outlook for old- and new-crop Canadian durum has tightened from last month.
A monthly supply-demand update released by Agriculture Canada on Wednesday showed 2024-25 durum ending stocks at 600,000 tonnes, down 50,000 from last month but still well up from 407,000 the previous year. Meanwhile, forecasted 2025-26 stocks dropped 150,000 tonnes from January to 500,000.
The fall in the old-crop ending stocks estimate reflects a 50,000-tonne increase in projected feed, waste and dockage, which rises to 374,000.
Today’s supply-demand estimates incorporate Statistics Canada’s Feb. 7 grain stocks report, which pegged national durum stockpiles as of Dec. 31 at 3.615 million tonnes, an increase of 13% from a year ago but down from 4.12 million two years earlier.
On the new-crop side, durum ending stocks were revised lower despite an upward revision in expected production. Ag Canada raised its 2025 durum planted area estimate by about 180,000 acres from last month to 6.23 million acres, now only about 2% below last year. With the larger planted area – and expected harvested area also rising – 2025 durum output is now estimated at 5.322 million tonnes, versus 5.152 million in January and the 2024 crop of 5.87 million.
However, this month’s larger durum production estimate was more than offset by a 150,000-tonne increase in the 2025-26 export forecast to 4.55 million, and a nearly 120,000-tonne increase in feed, waste and dockage from last month to 468,000 tonnes.
Ag Canada said the 2025 durum planted area estimate was revised higher from January due to “consistent strength in durum pricing and profitability vis-a-vis other crops.”
With the downward revisions in durum, all wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 fell 50,000 tonnes from last month to 4.4 million, down from 4.58 million in 2023-24. All wheat ending stocks for 2025-26 are now seen at 4.5 million tonnes, compared to 4.65 million in January.
Ag Canada’s old- and new-crop durum average price estimates are steady from last month at $320 and $310, respectively.
In other cereal crop changes this month, Ag Canada raised its old-crop oats ending stocks estimate by 20,000 tonnes from January to 400,000, down modestly from 442,000 in 2023-24. Projected 2024-25 oat exports were raised 70,000 tonnes from January to 2.32 million tonnes, while domestic use was lowered 90,000 tonnes to 1.1 million.
New-crop oat ending stocks were raised 30,000 tonnes from January to 500,000 tonnes.
The 2024-25 average price for oats is now seen at $335/tonne, an increase of $5 from January, while the average expected 2025-26 price was raised $20 to $325.
