Agriculture Canada is forecasting heavier 2024-25 pea ending stocks – and record high stocks for 2025-26 - as projected exports are impacted by trade barriers.
In its latest monthly supply-demand estimates released Friday, Ag Canada raised its old-crop pea ending stocks estimate by 275,000 tonnes to 700,000. Meanwhile, new-crop stocks were revised up to a whopping 1.77 million tonnes from 475,000 in February. If accurate, that would shatter the previous ending stocks high of 910,000 in 2009-10.
Much of the reason for the ballooning stocks is due to a downgrade in exports. For 2024-25, Ag Canada hacked its export forecast by 300,000 tonnes from February to 2.1 million tonnes, down from just over 2.4 million a year earlier. The new-crop export forecast took a more severe hit, slashed by 1.1 million tonnes from last month to 1.3 million.
In its accompanying commentary, Ag Canada said exports are expected to suffer amid expectations that current pea import tariffs by China continue and the non-import dry pea tariff exemption from India will expire on May 31, 2025.
In response to earlier Canadian tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum, China last week imposed 100% levies on imports of Canadian dry peas, along with canola oil and canola meal. Canadian pork and seafood were also hit but at a lower tariff rate. Canada’s pea exports (dried and fresh) to China were worth $303.6 million in 2024.
India initially lifted import tariffs on yellow peas in December 2023 aiming to improve the availability of affordability of pulses. However, the duty-free period was extended multiple times, most recently to the end of May.
Some of the larger ending stocks forecast for 2025-26 is also due to an expected larger crop this year, based on Statistics Canada planting intentions report released earlier this month. That report pegged new-crop dry pea intentions at 3.51 million acres, up from last month’s Ag Canada projection of 3.27 million.
With a larger planted, Ag Canada now estimates 2025 pea production at 3.125 million tonnes, versus 3.05 million last month and 2.997 million last year.
Ag Canada left its 2024-25 dry pea average price forecast unchanged from last month at $425/tonne, but lowered its new-crop price estimate by $35 to $365.
