The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s spring forecast looks dry for the western Corn Belt and the US southern Plains, where more moisture is needed.
Released Thursday, the forecast for temperature, precipitation, drought, and flooding for the coming months indicates that drought development is likely across the central and southern Plains, where much of the American Hard Red Winter crop is grown (see map below).
Meanwhile, much of the western U.S. is favoured to receive below-average precipitation, with drought expected to persist across much of North Dakota and Minnesota, South Dakota and Nebraska, along with the northwestern corner of Iowa. That may speed planting could impact early crop development.
In contrast, above normal precipitation is forecast in the Great Lakes region, which could slow spring planting
Above-average spring temperatures are also likely across much of the US, including locations that experienced colder-than-average temperatures and unusual snowfall during the winter. Included in that is the central Plains from Nebraska southward, including No. 1 winter wheat producer Kansas.
(See seasonal temperature and precipitation maps below)
Although portions of western Kansas and Nebraska did get beneficial precipitation in the form of rain and snow this week, the Plains are still in need of a larger, more generalized precipitation event, said World Weather. According to the latest US drought monitor, more than one-third (34%) of the US winter wheat area was being impacted by some form of drought as of Tuesday, up 7 points on the week and well above 13% last year.
Much of the Corn Belt is expected to see precipitation over the next couple of weeks, but still not enough to fully recharge soil moisture levels. More than half of the US corn area (53%) was being impacted by drought as of Tuesday, down a couple of points from a week earlier but up from 35% last year. An estimated 42% of soybean area was in drought, compared to 46% the previous week and 30% last year.
