Farm Credit Canada’s first crop outlook for 2025-26 suggests there may be more price upside for cereals rather than oilseeds. However, producer planting decisions are still not expected to be easy.
The outlook – which does not account for the impact of any potential US tariffs – shows prices for most crops stabilizing near their five-year averages in 2025-26 after falling year-over-year in 2023-24 (see chart below).
Looking ahead to the coming year, FCC said it expects soybean and canola prices will decrease relative to their cereal counterparts, specifically corn in eastern Canada and spring wheat in the Prairies. The relative price advantages do not necessarily indicate that one crop is more profitable than another; rather, they reflect the “current state of local and global supply and demand.”
Since the beginning of 2023, cash soybean prices in eastern Canada have been higher relative to corn, reaching levels not seen in over a decade. However, stocks-to-use ratios for the two global crops are trending in different directions according to data from the USDA.
For example, the global soybean stocks-to-use ratio has been increasing due to large worldwide supplies. On the other hand, world corn stocks are tightening.
As for wheat, global wheat stocks-to-use ratios are expected to be the lowest since 2007-08, supporting the market.
Global canola stocks-to-use are currently at 7%, which is below the 5-year average of 9%. It is anticipated that supplies will be even tighter in Canada due to a smaller crop in 2024, strong exports, and new crush capacity coming online. But canola prices are also influenced by the large global soybean stocks.
“It won’t be easy for producers to decide what to plant or seed this spring,” FCC said. “Many factors influencing pricing, such as tariffs or trade barriers, are largely beyond the control of producers and are expected to remain volatile this year.”
FCC’s full new-crop outlook can be seen here:
https://www.fcc-fac.ca/en/knowledge/economics/2025-crop-outlook
