At least half of US corn and soybean production is now being impacted by abnormally dry conditions, a dramatic increase from just two and three weeks ago.
Based on the latest weekly US drought monitor, abnormal dryness was plaguing 50% of US corn production as of Sept. 3. That is up 9 points from a week earlier, more than double the Aug. 20 level of 23% and 30 points higher than three weeks earlier. It is also the highest since early April, before spring and earlier summer rains significantly improved Midwest moisture conditions.
As for soybeans, 56% of American production was being impacted by abnormal dryness as of Sept. 3, an increase of 10 points from the previous week, 29 points above two weeks ago, and 33 points higher than three weeks earlier. It marks the largest amount of US soybean production impacted by abnormal dryness since late March.
As can be seen on the Midwest drought map below, the bulk of the dryness (and drought) is concentrated in Ohio and Indiana, although large portions of Illinois and Iowa are also affected.
The late summer dryness has raised concern about whether it, along with higher temperatures, has taken the top off what are still expected to be bumper US corn and soybean crops. The USDA is currently estimating the 2024 average US corn yield at 183.1 bu/acre and soybeans at 53.2 bu/acre - up from 177.3 bu and 50.6 bu last year. However, the USDA is scheduled to release its September supply-demand estimates, along with potentially updated yield estimates, on Thursday Sept. 12.
Meanwhile, the amount of actual drought impacting US corn and soybean production remains more modest at this point, with 13% of corn impacted and 19% of soybeans.
