A good start to the 2023-24 growing season and expectations for a strong rebound from the previous year’s drought-reduced harvest are now being threatened by recent increasing dryness across much of Argentina.
Argentina experienced timely rain and nearly ideal planting weather in November and December but in the last couple of weeks, the taps have essentially shut off. As the map below shows, almost the entire country experienced far below normal rainfall over the past seven days.
Meanwhile, according to World Weather, some areas in central and southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa have already been as much as three weeks without rain, and rising temperatures are further stressing soybeans and other crops. The mercury is forecast to rise into the upper 30s to the 40s degrees C this weekend and into early next week
“That kind of heat with declining soil moisture will raise stress for many crops - especially the late double cropped soybeans that are planted behind the wheat harvest in southern Argentina,” World Weather said.
Rain is possible around the middle to late next week, but World Weather said confidence remains low. But even if the rain does materialize, any improvement in soil moisture conditions is expected to be temporary, necessitating the need for follow-up moisture.
In its January supply-demand update the USDA raised its estimate of 2023-24 Argentina soybean production by 2 million tonnes from December to 50 million, double the 2022-23 harvest. Other estimates have put the crop as high as 53 million tonnes.
