The latest seasonal drought outlook is not favourable for the US winter wheat crop heading into winter.
As can be seen on the map below, drought persistence or drought development is expected across most of Texas, Oklahoma and the No.1 winter wheat production state of Kansas for the forecast period through the fall and into early winter. Conditions are already fraught in the three states, with the latest US drought monitor showing just over half of Kansas impacted by some form of drought as of Tuesday, along with approximately one-third of both Oklahoma and Texas.
At least some of the dry outlook for the southern Plains is due to expectations for the development of a La Nina event, the cool-water phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although forecasts suggest the La Nina to be relatively weak and brief, the event is still associated with below-average precipitation in the Great Plains, especially the southern Plains, during the fall months.
Meanwhile, the near-term forecast shows little reason for hope. Mostly warm and dry weather is in the forecast for the southern Plains for the next couple of weeks - good for corn and soybean harvesting but bad for winter wheat germination and establishment.
“With topsoil moisture rated 50 to 70% short to very short in all Plains States - except North Dakota - producers remain concerned about drought having an adverse impact on their winter wheat crops,” said today’s agricultural weather update from the USDA.
