Plenty could still happen between now and harvest, but Brazil soybean production potential appears to be trending higher.
Already pegged at a record high of 169 million tonnes by the USDA – up 10.4% from the previous year’s 153 million – private estimates for the 2024-25 Brazil crop are rising amid generally favourable weather and adequate soil moisture. On Monday, consultancy Celeres raised its view of the Brazil crop by 1 million tonnes to 170.8 million tonnes, while Agroconsult last week put it at 172.2 million tonnes.
A market note from Marex on Tuesday said crop scout Michael Cordonnier of Corn & Soybean Advisor had raised his estimate by 2 million tonnes to 170 million.
The rising production estimates are a stark departure just a couple of months ago, when historically dry conditions, including in the top production state of Mato Grosso, led to significant planting delays and worries the crop would get off to a poor start. Since then, seasonal rains have restored soil moisture and got the crop back on a solid footing. As can be seen on the map below, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) indicates at least normal to better than normal crop conditions in the primary production states as of Dec. 1.
Still, the crop has a long road yet to travel. The soybean crop in Brazil is harvested from late March to early April, with the harvest continuing into May in the southern states.
Near-term weather is non-threatening, with World Weather forecasting regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the next two weeks across much of Brazil as well as Paraguay.
The USDA is projecting 2024-25 world soybean production at 425.4 million tonnes, an increase of 7.7% over the 394.7 million produced a year earlier. Global soybean ending stocks are estimated at 131.7 million, versus 112.4 million in 2023-24.
