Traders and analysts were expecting few changes to the government’s 2024-25 US soybean supply-demand estimates this month, and the USDA delivered.
Aside from lowering some of its average price estimates, the USDA left its American soybean supply-demand outlook for the current marketing year unchanged from last month. Ending stocks were held at 470 million bu, up sharply from 370 million a year earlier. Going into today’s report, the average trade guess was for a minor 1-million bu decline in the ending stocks estimate to 469 million. Soybean futures were little changed as well, up 1-3 cents in trading this afternoon.
The 2024-25 season average soybean price is now forecast at $10.20/bu, down 60 cents from last month and well down from $12.40 a year earlier. The soybean meal price forecast was reduced as well, down $20 from November to $300/short ton. On the other hand, the forecasted soybean oil price was unchanged at 43 cents/lb.
This month’s global 2024-25 soybean outlook includes both higher production and ending stocks.
World soybean production is raised 1.7 million tonnes from November to 427.1 million (compared to 394.87 million in 2023-24) on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. The 2024-25 Argentina crop is now seen by the USDA at 52 million tonnes, up 1 million from November and above 48.21 million a year earlier. At 169 million tonnes, the 2024-25 Brazil soy production estimate was left unchanged from last month but remains up from 153 million in 2023-24.
Pre-report trade guesses had the Argentina soybean crop at 51.4 million tonnes, and the Brazil crop at 169.3 million.
Global soybean ending stocks are pegged at 131.87 million tonnes this month, up slightly from 131.74 million in November and above 112.16 million in 2023-24. The average trade guess for global ending stocks was 132.5 million tonnes.
