The USDA made just minor changes to its 2024-25 US and world wheat supply-demand estimates on Friday.
US wheat ending stocks were pegged at 815 million bu in the US government’s monthly supply-demand update, up just 3 million bu from the October estimate although a hefty 17% above last year. Meanwhile, global wheat ending stocks were trimmed a modest 100,000 tonnes from last month to 257.6 million – down from 266.25 million in 2023-24.
Both estimates came in slightly above the average pre-report trade guesses of 813 million bu and 256.79 million tonnes. Wheat futures were trading about 4-6 cents/bu lower this afternoon, following the report’s noon hour ET release.
The increase in the US wheat ending stocks estimate was due to a 5-million bu increase in expected imports from last month to 120 million – which was partially offset by a 2-million bu increase in projected food use, to 966 million bu.
Global wheat production this month is estimated at 794.73 million tonnes, little changed from 794.08 million in October, amid mostly offsetting changes. Argentina’s crop was trimmed 500,000 tonnes from last month to 17.5 million, while Russia saw an identical reduction to 81.5 million. At 122.6 million tonnes, the EU crop was reduced from 123 million in October. On the other hand, the Kazakhstan crop was increased 2 million tonnes from last month to 18 million.
The US season-average farm price for wheat is down a dime this month to $5.60 on prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
