The International Grains Council has lowered its 2024-25 world grains production and ending stocks forecasts from last month.
In its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged total world grains output (wheat and coarse grains) at 2.311 billion tonnes, down 4 million from the October forecast although still slightly above the previous year’s 2.308 billion. With production falling - and consumption projected higher - world grains ending stocks are estimated at 576 million tonnes, down 8 million tonnes from October and a new 10-year low.
Estimated global wheat production dropped 2 million tonnes from last month to 796 million, still 1 million above last year, mainly due to a further erosion in EU output. The EU crop is now seen at 120.3 million tonnes, versus 121.8 million in October and 133.1 million in 2023-24. The EU wheat crop was battered by overly wet and overcast weather, with the harvest in No. 1 producer France the worst in 40 years.
World wheat ending stocks were dropped 3 million tonnes from last month to 263 million tonnes, down from 272 million in 2023-24. At 58 million tonnes, wheat ending stocks among the world’s major exporting countries are down from 60 million last month and 63 million a year earlier.
On the other hand, the IGC revised its global corn production estimate higher, up 1 million tonnes from October at 1.225 billion and compared to 1.231 billion the previous year. However, with an upward revision in consumption, world corn ending stocks are down 4 million tonnes this month to 275 million – 10 million below 2023-24.
For soybeans, global production was trimmed 2 million tonnes from October to 419 million tonnes, still well above the 2023-24 crop of 396 million. Ending stocks were lowered 4 million from October to 82 million tonnes, compared to 71 million last year.
