The International Grains Council has boosted its estimate of 2024-25 world grains output amid improving yield prospects in some countries, including Canada and the US.
But with demand expected to increase as well, global ending stocks are still forecast to tighten to a 10-year low.
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday, the IGC pegged world grains production (wheat and coarse grains) for the 2024-25 marketing year at 2.321 billion tonnes, up 8 million from the June estimate. If accurate, it would be 1% above a year earlier and mark a new all-time high. However, with feed, food and industrial consumption projected to reach a new high as well, at 2.324 billion tonnes, ending stocks are nonetheless expected to decline 1% year-over-year to 586 million tonnes, the lowest since 2014-15.
The IGC raised its 2024-25 global wheat production estimate to 801 million tonnes this month, up from 793 million in June and last year, but still below the 2022-23 crop of 803 million.
Expected Canadian wheat production was increased to 35.8 million tonnes from 34.6 million in June, while the US crop was raised to 54.7 million tonnes from 51 million. On the other hand, EU production was trimmed to 128.7 million tonnes from 129.3 million, while Russia output was left steady from last month at 81.8 million.
Global corn production increased 2 million tonnes from last month to 1.225 billion tonnes, up slightly from 1.224 billion in 2023-24 and above the 2022-23 crop of 1.164 billion. The US crop was revised up to 379.2 million tonnes from 374 million in June but Ukraine, was cut 500,000 tonnes to 27.2 million amid ongoing heat and dryness.
The IGC left its 2024-25 world soybean estimates little changed from last month, with expected production holding at 415 million tonnes, up from 392 million a year earlier, and ending stocks steady at 79 million – up 10 million from 2023-24.
