The International Grains Council lowered its estimate of 2024-25 global corn production, but raised expected soybean output, in its monthly Grain Market Report on Thursday.
The 6-million tonne cut in world corn production to 1.219 billion tonnes mainly reflects a smaller US crop, which did not yield as well as expected. In its January supply-demand update released last week, the USDA cut its average yield estimate by nearly 4 bu/acre, dropping production to 377.6 million tonnes from 384.6 million in December.
Amid smaller production, the IGC cut its 2024-25 world corn ending stocks forecast by 3 million tonnes from last month to 272 million – now a hefty 20 million below the previous year.
On the other hand, the IGC inched up its 2024-25 global soybean production forecast by 1 million tonnes from its previous estimate to a new high of 420 million, up 6% on the year, with increased outlooks for South American and Asian growers more than offsetting a reduced US crop estimate. Global soybean ending stocks were raised 2 million tonnes to 84 million, a year-over-year increase of 11 million.
Estimated world wheat production for 2024-25 was left unchanged at 796 million tonnes, 1 million above 2023-24, as increases for Australia and Canada were offset by declines for Russia and the EU. At 265 million tonnes, world wheat ending stocks for 2024-25 were raised 2 million but remain 8 million below last year.
Based on information on sown areas and weather conditions in major cropping regions, the IGC pegged 2025-26 world wheat output at a record 805 million tonnes, up 1% on the year. But with supply seen expanding only fractionally, projected gains in consumption could result in a further drawdown in ending stocks, the IGC warned.
