The 2024-25 US wheat supply-demand picture may be unchanged but global ending stocks have gotten heavier this month.
Updated supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Thursday pegged world wheat stocks for the current marketing year at 257.22 million tonnes, up 600,000 from the August projection and above the average pre-report trade estimate of 255.4 million. Global wheat ending stocks in 2023-24 amounted to 265.25 million.
The USDA lowered its 2024-25 world wheat production estimate by 1.4 million tonnes from last month to 796.9 million – still a new record high - but that reduction was more than offset by a 1.5-million tonne increase in total supplies. The increase in total supply was mainly prompted by recent upward revisions in Canadian wheat production and ending stocks estimates for the past three crop years by Statistics Canada.
On the production side, the USDA dropped its estimate of 2024-25 EU wheat output by 4 million tonnes from last month to 124 million, down from 134.87 million a year earlier, on unfavourable harvest weather for France and Germany.
The drop was only partially offset by a 2-million tonnes increase in the Australia production estimate to 32 million, and a 700,000-tonne increase for Ukraine to 22.3 million.Expected Russia production was left steady at 83 million tonnes, well down from 91.5 million in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, US wheat ending stocks were held steady from last month at 828 million bu, up from 702 million a year earlier. Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were looking for a small downgrade in the ending stocks estimate to 822 million.
The average expected wheat price, at $5.70 bu, was also unchanged from August but down from $6.96 for 2023-24.
Wheat futures were trading between 3 cents lower and 1 cent higher across all three exchanges this afternoon.
