Corn and soybean crops in South America are going into the Christmas season in generally good condition, while winter wheat crops in parts of Russia are more uneven.
The following provides a closer look at current weather and crop conditions for key global production regions.
Brazil:
Weather in Brazil continues to be mostly beneficial for corn and soybean crops, but the outlook heading into the holiday period is decidedly mixed.
World Weather said in a report Tuesday that a “more classic” La Nina pattern is setting up for the next 10 days to two weeks, which will bring below normal rainfall for the south and heavier rain and the potential for flooding to the more central areas, including the No. 1 corn and soybean production state of Mato Grosso.
The ground in many central areas is already saturated, and the likelihood of several more inches of rain does raise the possibility of some crop damage and rising disease pressure.
On the other hand, Brazilian forecasts stretching out into February suggest drier-than-normal conditions for the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, which accounts for approximately 11% of total national soybean output and roughly 3% of corn production.
After a dry start to the planting season in Brazil, rainfall became more plentiful around the second half of October and the country remains on track to produce a record-large soybean crop in 2024-25, with some estimates now up to 170 million tonnes and even higher. However, wet weather woes in the central regions and the potential for increasing dryness in the southern part of the country is something to keep an eye on.
Argentina:
For Argentina, the turn to more traditional La Nina-like weather for the next couple of weeks will mean drier than normal conditions. Spotty showers moved through central Argentina on Monday and were expected to continue into the north today (Tuesday). Southern areas largely missed out and forecasts look mostly dry through the middle of next week.
Overall conditions in Argentina remain mostly favourable for now, but World Weather has warned that continued dryness into mid-January could start to become a problem, especially if temperatures start to rise as well. As of about mid-December, the Argentina soybean crop was rated 65% good to excellent, with soil moisture rated 94% adequate to optimum.
In its December supply-demand update, the USDA increased its 2024-25 Argentina soybean production estimate by 1 million tonnes from November to 52 million.
Russia:
Winter wheat crops are dormant, but conditions in the east are much worse than in the west because of dryness. However, slowly improving soil moisture in southeastern Europe into southern Russia may lead to better winter crop establishment in the spring.
Reports earlier this month said more than one-third of the Russian crop had gone into the winter in poor condition, one of the worst ratings in decades. Russian consultancy SovEcon recently cut its estimate of the total 2025 Russia wheat harvest to 78.7 million tonnes. If accurate, that would be the lowest since 2021 and far below the five-year average of 88.2 million.
Precipitation is expected to be limited for the next week or so, a pattern that is expected to be accompanied by above-normal temperatures.
US Central Plains:
US winter wheat crops continue to overwinter well, except in those areas still afflicted by drought. As of Dec. 17, just 27% of the American winter wheat production area was being impacted by some form of drought. That is down from over half in early November and the lowest since July.
Temperatures across the southern Plains are warm, with record highs of over 70 degrees F recorded in parts of Kansas earlier this week. However, cooler weather is on the way for next week. The arrival of the colder air should is expected to come with snowfall, which may offer crops a protective blanket of snow.
Plains wheat areas in the west have been drier than those in the east.
