Early new-crop supply-demand estimates released by the USDA on Thursday provided no major shocks, with American producers expected to plant more corn and wheat but fewer soybeans.
Meanwhile, production outlooks for the big three crops were mixed versus 2024, with season-average prices all forecast to decline modestly.
Projections this morning from the government’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum put 2025 US corn planted area at 94 million acres, up 3.4 million or 3.7% from a year earlier, with production forecast to rise 5% to 15.585 billion bu. Soybean area was estimated at 84 million acres, down 3.1 million or 3.8% on the year. But expectations for a slightly better soy yield this year compared to 2024 lifted estimated new-crop soy production fractionally above a year ago to 4.37 billion bu.
Total wheat area was estimated by the USDA at 47 million acres, an increase of 900,000 or about 2% from the previous year. But with yield and harvested area expectations down from a year ago, the USDA projected a 2% decline in all wheat output to 1.926 billion bu.
Combined spring and durum wheat plantings for 2025-26 are projected higher than last year with more area available in the Northern Plains with an expected reduction in soybean plantings although higher expected net returns for corn could limit the potential increase, the USDA said. The USDA’s winter wheat seedings report in January estimated US winter wheat planted area for harvest this year at 34.1 million acres, up 2% from 2024.
Combined acreage for the big three row crops is projected at 225 million acres, an increase of less than 1%, “reflecting relatively more favourable price prospects for corn,” and a reported increase in winter wheat seedings, the USDA said.
Today’s USDA estimates are a starting point for 2025-26 supply-demand scenarios, based on the assumption of normal weather. The first survey-based estimates of US new-crop planted area will be released March 31, with the first official 2025-26 supply-demand projections released in May.
Corn:
This year’s average yield is estimated at 181 bu/acre, compared to 179.3 bu in 2024 and 177.3 bu in 2023. With beginning stocks down from the prior year, total corn supplies are forecast at a record 17.15 billion bu, up about 3% on the year. Total corn use for 2025-26 is forecast at a new high of 15.185 billion bu, an increase of 70 million from a year earlier, as growth in domestic use is partially offset by lower exports.
Projected feed and residual use is up about 2% to 5.9 billion bushels, with larger corn supplies and lower expected prices. Exports are down 50 million bu to 2.4 billion as expected US global market share declines with larger exports from South America.
US corn ending stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 1.965 billion bu, up 425 million from a year ago resulting in stocks relative to use at 12.9%. If accurate, that would be the highest US stocks to use for corn since 2019-20. The season-average corn price received by producers is forecast down 15 cents to $4.20/bu.
Soybeans:
The 2025 soybean yield is forecast 1.8 bu higher to 52.5 bu/acre for 2025/26. Total supply is estimated to increase less than 1% from a year earlier to 4.77 billion bu, with demand rising 101 million bu or 2.3% to 4.45 billion bu.
Soybean crush is expected to increase 65 million bu to 2.48 billion. Exports are projected at 1.865 billion bu, up 40 million from the 2024-25 forecast. Large global supplies are likely to lead to lower soybean prices, spurring international demand, but the US share of exports is expected to remain below 30% of global exports (compared to near 40% a decade ago), the USDA said.
With higher exports and crush, soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 320 million bu, down 60 million from the 2024-25 forecast. Despite lower stocks, ample global supplies will continue to pressure soybean prices. The season-average farm price is projected at $10/bu, down a dime from the last marketing year.
Wheat:
The all wheat yield for 2025-26 is projected down 2% from last year at 50.1 bu/acre and is based on a long-term linear trend. Beginning stocks are forecast increasing in 2025-26 to 794 million bushels, up 14% from the previous year. Despite a smaller crop, the higher beginning stocks are expected to raise 2025-26 supplies by 1% to 2.83 billion bushels. On the other hand, projected 2025-26 total use at 2.004 billion bu, is unchanged from a year earlier but above the 5-year average.
New-crop wheat exports are forecast unchanged at 850 million bu on a continued competitive environment as the aggregate production of Argentina, Australia, and Canada is expected to be similar to last year. Additionally, a recovery in 2025/26 EU production after falling to a 17- year low in 2024/25 will likely offset expectations that Black Sea exportable supplies could remain constrained, the USDA said.
With supplies projected to increase more than total use, 2025-26 US wheat ending stocks are pegged at 826 million bu, 4% above the previous year and potentially the highest in five years. However, the stocks-to-use ratio of 41% is only minimally higher than 2024-25, resulting in a 2025-26 wheat season-average farm price of $5.50bu, only slightly less than last year. Wheat prices are also expected to be supported by corn prices projected only marginally lower in 2025-26.
