CN Rail and CPKC have released their 2024-25 grain plans amid the unprecedented potential for labour disruptions at both companies at the same time.
CN is projecting annual carload movement of grain and grain products of between 28.5 million and 31 million tonnes. The forecast for the upcoming crop year – which does not include grain shipped via container direct from Western Canada – compares with the 2023-24 estimate of 29 million tonnes and the 2022-23 total of just over 28.1 million tonnes.
For its part, CPKC said it expects to supply the capacity to move nearly 34 million tonnes of Canadian grain and grain products in 2024-25, versus the 2023-24 year-to-date amount of 23.67 million and the five-year average of 26.32 million.
However, the grain plans of both companies noted various concerns with hitting their targets, including the consequences of federal labour regulations, and weather delays in loading grain vessels at the Port of Vancouver.
Another major wildcard remains the threat of potential labour disruption.
More than 9,000 workers at CN and CPKC were originally set to be in a possible strike or lockout position as of May 22. However, prior to the deadline the federal government formally asked the Canada Industrial Relations Board to weigh in on what commodities are considered essential and must continue to move during a work stoppage.
As part of its review, the CIRB accepted final submissions from the two railways, the union, and other organizations on June 14, but a final ruling is not expected until Aug. 9. And since no strike or lockout can occur prior to the board’s ruling, the impasse between the union and the railways remains in a holding pattern.
CPKC CEO Keith Creel said earlier this week he expects a labour disruption could occur during the latter half of August,
Although the CPKC Grain Plan said the company remains firmly committed to negotiating a new contract with its workers, it warned a labour disruption would throw a wrench into the best laid plans.
“The timing of a potential. . . work stoppage could have a significant impact on grain transportation in Canada during this upcoming crop year, particularly if it occurs in the lead up to or during the fall grain harvest, or during the winter months when demand for grain transportation is typically strong,” CPKC said.
“A prolonged work stoppage during this period of the grain shipping calendar would cause an extended recovery period for the railway network and other elements of the grain supply chain.”