Wheat futures were trading little changed on Tuesday, but prices across all three exchanges remain at multi-month highs.
As the charts below show, the March Chicago and Kansas City contracts hit more than three-month highs last week, while the March Minneapolis future is treading in much the same territory.
The winter wheat markets had a particularly strong performance last week, with both Chicago and Kansas City gaining about 17 cents. The gains in Minneapolis spring wheat were more subdued, as that market added just under 6 cents during the week.
At least some of the strength in the wheat market last week was due to concern about cold weather in both the US and parts of Russia potentially damaging winter wheat crops.
Further bullishness was due to declining 2024-25 production and export estimates out of Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter. Russian consultancy IKAR last week cut its Russia wheat production and export estimates to 82 million and 43 million tonnes, respectively, down 2 million and 500,000 from its previous forecast.
Meanwhile, last week’s USDA supply-demand update trimmed estimated 2024-25 US wheat ending stocks by 4 million bu from January to 794 million, still well above 696 million in 2023-24. Global stocks dropped 1.3 million tonnes from last month to 257.6 million, below the previous year’s 267.49 million and below trade expectations.
Projected wheat exports for both Russia and Ukraine exports were trimmed 500,000 tonnes in last week’s USDA report, with Russia down to 45.5 million and Ukraine to 15.5 million. For those two countries, that represents a significant decline from 55.5 million and 18.5 million in 2023-24.
Although higher Monday morning, more recent weakness in the US dollar has also given wheat prices a boost. The greenback fell to a two-month low last week, making US wheat more affordable, and thus more attractive, for foreign buyers. Strength in corn futures has provided fuel for wheat as well.
March Chicago wheat: source – Barchart
March Kansas City wheat: source – Barchart
Minneapolis wheat: source - Barchart
