With upward revisions in production, Agriculture Canada has raised its 2023-24 ending stocks forecasts for a number of crops, including canola.
In its final monthly supply-demand update for calendar year 2023 on Friday, the federal department pegged canola ending stocks for the current marketing year at 1.45 million tonnes. That is up 450,000 tonnes from the November estimate, although still below the previous year’s ending stocks of just over 1.5 million.
The increase in ending stocks is due to Statistics Canada’s crop production report earlier this month, which raised this year’s canola crop to 18.32 million tonnes, up about 1 million from the agency’s previous forecast made in September of 17.36 million.
Ag Canada offset some of the larger production estimate by raising the 2023-24 crush estimate by 500,000 tonnes from last month to a new high of 10.5 million – above 9.96 million a year earlier. On the other hand, projected exports held steady from November at 7.7 million tonnes, below the previous year’s 7.95 million.
“Total domestic use of canola is estimated up slightly on an expected record canola crush of 10.5 million tonnes as the sector expands to serve US demand for renewable energy,” Ag Canada said in its commentary.
Compared to last month, canola feed, waste, and dockage was also revised higher, up marginally to 233,000 tonnes from 223,000.
Despite the expectation of heavier stocks, Ag Canada revised its 2023-24 canola season average price $15/tonne higher from November to $730, still well down from $857 the previous year.
All wheat ending stocks were bumped higher from November as well, increasing 350,000 tonnes to 3.95 million, versus 3.65 million in 2022-23.
Wheat
Like canola, all wheat production was revised higher in StatsCan’s December crop production report, climbing to 31.95 million tonnes from 29.83 million.
With the additional supply, all wheat exports were raised 1.9 million tonnes from last month to 23.2 million, still below 25.66 million a year earlier but up sharply from the drought-reduced exports of just over 15 million in 2021-22. Some of the larger export forecast was offset by a slight decline in expected domestic use, which was revised down to 8.58 million tonnes from 8.71 million in November.
At 4.04 million tonnes, durum production in StatsCan’s December report was little changed from 4.05 million in September, but 2023-24 ending stocks were nonetheless revised up 50,000 tonnes from last month to 450,000 tonnes (compared to 409,000 in 2022-23), as projected exports were trimmed 100,000 tonnes to 3.2 million and total domestic use increased to 829,000 tonnes from 793,000.
Wheat (excl durum) stocks are estimated at 3.5 million tonnes this month, up 300,000 from November and above 3.24 million the previous year.
The estimated season average prices for durum and spring wheat were left steady from last month at $475 and $350/tonne, respectively.
Barley
Barley ending stocks for 2023-24 are now pegged at 750,000 tonnes, an increase of 200,000 from last month as production was raised about 1 million tonnes higher in StatsCan’s December report to 8.89 million.
Ag Canada did raise its barley export forecast slightly, up 50,000 tonnes from last month to 2.78 million, but most of the added production was offset by expected heavier domestic use, which was raised to 6.15 million tonnes from 5.47 million.
The average expected barley price was trimmed $10/tonne from November to $340.
Oats
At 450,000 tonnes, oat ending stocks for 2023-24 are up 100,000 from last month but still down sharply from 1.27 million a year earlier.
Oat production was revised just slightly higher in December, up to 2.63 million tonnes from 2.43 million in September. Expected domestic use was little changed from November at 986,000 tonnes, but exports were revised 100,000 tonnes higher to 2.5 million to blunt some of the impact of the larger crop.
The average expected oat price was steady from last month at $370/tonne.
