Canadian oat and barley production may be heavier than originally expected but still mixed compared to a year earlier.
Monday’s Statistics Canada crop production report pegged 2024 national barley output at 7.6 million tonnes, up from the federal agency’s late August estimate of 7.468 million but still 14.7% below the 2023 crop of 8.905 million. If accurate, it would be the smallest national barley crop since 2014 at 7.116 million tonnes, excluding the 2021 drought year when output fell to just 6.983 million.
Meanwhile, oat output was revised higher from August as well - up to 3.017 million tonnes from 2.91 million - and is now 14.2% above the 2023 crop of 2.643 million, which was the smallest since 2010.
At 61 bu/acre, the average national barley yield was revised up from 59.9 bu in August although that remains slightly below the 2023 average of 61.2 bu. If accurate, it would match 2014 for the lowest barley yield since 2012 at 53.9 bu/acre (excluding the drought year of 2021 when the average yield dropped to 43.1 bu/acre. Barley harvested area is unchanged from August at 5.723 million acres, down 14.3% on the year.
The average oat yield is now seen at 83.6 bu/acre, up from 80.7 bu last month although still below 83.9 bu in 2023. Oat harvested area is harvested area is expected to rise by 14.6% from 2023 to 2.339 million acres.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
