National wheat production for this year might not quite measure up to earlier expectations but is still projected above 2023.
The latest model-based production estimates from Statistics Canada on Monday pegged the 2024 Canadian all wheat crop at 34.293 million tonnes. That is down slightly from the federal agency’s August forecast of 34.373 million but up 4.1% on the year although below the 2022 crop of 34.806 million.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
This year’s average national all wheat yield is estimated at 48.4 bu/acre, down fractionally from 48.5 bu/acre in August. That is up 5.7% from the 2023 average of 45.8 bu but still below the 2022 average of 51.3 bu. This year’s higher average yield was more than enough to offset a 1.6% reduction in expected all wheat harvested area from last year to 26.025 million acres.
Durum production is still seen the leading the increase in all wheat output, with the 2024 crop now estimated at 6.033 million tonnes, little changed from 6.021 million in August and up a hefty 47.6% from a year earlier. If accurate, it would be the largest Canadian durum crop since 2020 at 6.571 million tonnes.
The spring wheat crop is estimated at 25.275 million tonnes, down slightly from the August estimate of 25.351 million and 1% below last year. At 2.984 million tonnes, national winter wheat production is also down slightly from the August estimate of 3 million but above 2.852 million in 2023.
Durum harvested area is expected to increase by 5.3% to 6.181 million acres, while yields are now projected to jump by 40.2% to 35.9 bu/acre, up slightly from the August yield estimate of 35.8 bu.
The average national spring wheat yield is seen at 50.1 bu/acre, down from 50.3 bu in August but still up 2.5% on the year. Harvested area is projected 3.4% lower to 18.523 million.
The average winter wheat yield, at 83 bu/acre, is down 0.5 bu from August and down from 87.5 bu in 2023. Harvested area is pegged at 1.32 million acres, compared to 1.401 million last year.
Saskatchewan all wheat production is estimated at 16.040 million tonnes, up slightly from the August estimate of 15.943 million and 9% above the previous year. The average provincial all wheat yield, at 42.5 bu/acre, is up from 42.2 bu last month and above 38.7 bu in 2023. All wheat harvested area in Saskatchewan is projected to decrease by 0.6% this year to 13.878 million acres.
At 10.327 million tonnes, Alberta all wheat output is up from 10.217 million in August and 10.7% above last year. The average provincial all wheat yield is forecast at 50.1 bu/acre, compared to 49.5 bu in August and 44.7 bu in 2023. Harvested area is expected to fall by 1.1% to 7.581 million acres.
In Manitoba, all wheat production is now estimated at 4.973 million tonnes, down from the August estimate of 5.247 million and 8.8% below last year. The average yield, at 57.1 bu/acre, is down from the August projection of 60.3 bu and almost 7% below the 2023 average. Harvested area in the province is expected lower as well, down 2.1% to 3.199 million acres.
Ontario all wheat production is projected at 2.403 million tonnes, compared to 2.506 million in August and 16.6% below last year. All the decline from August is due to a smaller spring wheat crop, with winter wheat output, at 2.403 million tonnes, unchanged from last month but down from last year’s 2.847 million. This year’s average winter wheat yield in the province is pegged at 92.5 bu/acre, down from 97.9 bu in 2023 and the lowest since 2021 at 90.9 bu.
