Agriculture Canada has slashed its 2024-25 barley ending stocks estimate from last month amid a downgrade in expected 2024 production.
Oat production and ending stocks have also been lowered from last month.
Ag Canada’s latest monthly supply-demand estimates released Monday showed new-crop barley ending stocks at 600,000 tonnes, down 350,000 from the June estimate and now 50,000 below the forecast for 2023-24.
Ending stocks were reduced to reflect a smaller national barley crop this year, estimated at 8.508 million tonnes versus the June estimate of 9.496 million and slightly below the 2023-24 crop of 8.896 million.
Based on the smaller planted area in Statistics Canada’s June 27 acreage report, Ag Canada is now projecting 2024 barley harvested area at 5.81 million acres, down from last month’s estimate of 6.49 million. Ag Canada partially offset the smaller harvested area with a minor increase in its yield estimate, to 67.3 bu/acre.
With the smaller crop, Ag Canada dialed back its 2024-25 barley export forecast to 2.95 million tonnes from 3.05 million, while feed, waste, and dockage was dropped to 5.079 million from 5.613 million.
The average expected 2024-25 barley price was lowered $5 from last month to $290, down from $310 for 2023-24.
For oats, projected 2024-25 ending stocks were cut 100,000 tonnes this month to 350,000, even with the previous year, as production was lowered to 3.332 million tonnes from 3.51 million in June – still up from 2.636 million a year earlier.
As with barley, Ag Canada lowered its oats harvested area estimate from last month, but slightly increased its average yield estimate to 90.5 bu/acre.
Oat demand estimates were little changed from last month, with the average expected 2024-25 price down $10 from June at $310/tonne, compared to $350 for 2023-24.
