The latest estimates from the province suggest Alberta major crop yields may not measure up to this week’s model-based projections from Statistics Canda in most cases.
Compared to two weeks earlier, the latest weekly crop report on Friday showed some deterioration in the provincial major crops yield index, which now stands 1% below the five-year average and 5% below the 10-year average.
As of Tuesday, the province was forecasting the average Alberta spring wheat yield at 46.3 bu/acre, below the 51.5 bu estimate contained in Wednesday’s StatsCan crop production report. At 58.6 bu/acre, the province’s barley yield estimate is 1.6 bu the StatsCan forecast, while oats is 3.5 bu below at 69.3 bu. The biggest difference is seen in canola, with the province at just 33.2 bu/acre versus StatsCan’s projection of 39.9 bu.
Peas are the only crop for which the province expects a higher average yield, at 36.6 bu/acre, compared to 34.8 bu for StatsCan.
Within Alberta, the province is expecting the strongest yields in the South Region at 19% above the five-year average, and the poorest yields in the Central Region at 12% below the average.
Meanwhile, today’s report pegged the overall Alberta harvest of all crops at 20% complete as of Tuesday, up 17 points from two weeks ago and 8 points ahead of the five-year average.
Among all crops, harvest progress is furthest along for winter wheat, with 94% complete, followed by fall rye at 93%, dry peas at 73%, and lentils at 59%. The durum harvest was 39% done, with barley at 31%, chickpeas at 22%, spring wheat at 17%, oats at 7% and canola at just over 1%.
The South has seen the most progress, with 38% of crops combined as of Tuesday, 8 points ahead of the five-year average. In the Central Region, 25% of crops were off versus the average of 10%. Both the North West and North East regions were at less than 7% complete, still 4 points ahead their 5-year averages. The Peace Region was 11% done, 9 points ahead of average.
Crop conditions across the province are currently rated 43% good to excellent for all crops, in comparison to the 5-year average of 55% and 10-year average of 57%.
Precipitation over the past week was concentrated mostly in the North West, Peace, and the eastern part of the North East, with these areas receiving 10-50 mm. The Central Region experienced light showers of 3 to 15 mm, while the South Region saw only 0 to 2 mm.
Region One: South (Strathmore, Lethbridge, Medicine Hat, Foremost)
• The South Region has combined 94 per cent of winter wheat, 93 per cent of fall rye, 87 per cent of dry peas and 59 per cent of lentils. Harvesting is in full swing on most crops with good weather conditions.
• About 38 per cent of all crops are now in the bin (8 per cent ahead of the 5-year average), 7 per cent in swath and 55 per cent still standing.
• Dryland second-cut hay is 30 per cent complete with a yield of 0.7 tons per acre and irrigated second-cut is 76 per cent complete with a yield of 2.2 tons per acre. Pasture growth conditions are rated as 35 per cent poor, 34 per cent fair, 30 per cent good, and 1 per cent excellent.
• Sub-surface soil moisture is described as limited with a reported 30 per cent as poor, 49 per cent as fair, 21 per cent as good, 0 per cent as excellent and 0 per cent as excessive.
Region Two: Central (Rimbey, Airdrie, Coronation, Oyen)
• Harvest is progressing well in most areas, though heavy dew and showers have slowed down progress in parts of the region.
• In the Central Region, 25 per cent of all crops are harvested, ahead of the 5-year average of 10 per cent. • Second-cut hay is 33 per cent cut and baled, and yields are at 0.8 tons per acre. Pasture growth conditions are rated as 41 per cent poor, 45 per cent fair, 14 per cent good, and 0 per cent excellent.
• Limited rains over the last week had a negligible impact on sub-surface soil moisture, which is rated as 47 per cent poor, 33 per cent fair, 19 per cent good, 1 per cent excellent and 0 per cent excessive.
Region Three: North East (Smoky Lake, Vermilion, Camrose, Provost)
• Harvesting of peas and barley is well underway, contributing to the 6 per cent of all crops combined, 10 per cent swathed, and 84 per cent still standing.
• Second-cut dryland hay is reported as 17 per cent complete with a 1.4 tons per acre yield. Pasture growth conditions are rated as 24 per cent poor, 57 per cent fair, 19 per cent good, and 0 per cent excellent.
• Regional showers were welcomed over the last week, but many areas remain in poor condition. Sub-surface soil moisture is reported as 24 per cent poor, 47 per cent fair, 29 per cent good, 0 per cent excellent and 0 per cent excessive.
Region Four: North West (Barrhead, Edmonton, Leduc, Drayton Valley, Athabasca)
• Harvest progress is at 7 per cent complete for all crops, with 15 per cent swathed and 78 per cent still standing.
• Second-cut dryland hay is 36 per cent complete with a yield of 1.0 tons per acre. Pasture growth conditions are rated as 34 per cent poor, 43 per cent fair, 23 per cent good, and 0 per cent excellent.
• Areas of the region reported significant rains, resulting in regional sub-surface moisture reported as 36 per cent poor, 46 per cent fair, 17 per cent good, 1 per cent excellent and 0 per cent excessive.
Region Five: Peace (Fairview, Falher, Grande Prairie, Valleyview)
• The Peace Region has combined 75 per cent of winter wheat, 42 per cent of dry peas and 16 per cent of barley. • Favourable conditions have allowed combining to progress to 11 per cent complete, with 14 per cent swathed and 75 per cent of crops are still standing.
• Dryland hay second cut is 87 per cent complete with an average yield of 1.0 tons per acre. Pasture growth conditions are rated as 8 per cent poor, 32 per cent fair, 52 per cent good, and 8 per cent excellent.
• Regional sub-surface moisture is reported as 2 per cent poor, 26 per cent fair, 64 per cent good, 8 per cent excellent and 0 per cent excessive.
