Canadian producers are expected to increase corn planted area in 2025, while clawing back soybean acres.
Agriculture Canada’s first monthly suppply-demand estimates for the upcoming 2025-26 marketing year on Monday pegged national corn planted area at 3.75 million acres, up 3% from the previous year and potentially the second highest on record after 2023. On the other hand, soybean area is seen falling almost 7% year-over-year to 5.31 million, the lowest since 2022 at 5.27 million.
Strong demand and “relatively good price prospects” are likely to spur more corn acres in 2025, Ag Canada said, while lower prices are expected to prompt a shift out of soybeans and into alternative crops.
Ag Canada is projecting the 2025-26 Chatham average corn price at $205/tonne ($5.20/bu), down $10 from 2024-25, mainly due to pressure from expected lower US corn prices. The average price for soybeans, (track Chatham), is forecast to hold steady from the 2024-25 already depressed level of $480/tonne ($13.05/bu) - well down from the five-year average of $595 ($16.20).
National corn production for 2025 is estimated at 15.1 million tonnes, a fall of 2% from last year due to expectations for a return to more normal yields despite larger seeded area.
Total corn supply is projected at 19.2 million tonnes, versus 19.541 million in 2024-25 due to lower production. Exports are forecast to decline – down to 200,000 tonnes to 2 million – on the heels of expected large corn production worldwide. Total domestic demand is predicted to tick a bit lower to 15.2 million tonnes on lower feed use and stable food and industrial use.
As for soybeans, production is forecast to fall nearly 9% on the year to 6.9 million tonnes as the decline in planted area is compounded by slightly lower yields as they return to trend. If accurate, it would be the smallest nationwide soybean crop since 2022.
Total soybean supplies for 2025-26 are projected at 7.95 million tonnes, down from 8.58 million the previous year. Total domestic use, at 2.45 million tonnes is forecast to fall slightly on lower feed, waste, and dockage with losses limited by a slight rise in domestic processing. Crush is “optimistically projected” at 1.9 million tonnes, versus 1.85 million a year earlier, on steady food and fuel demand for soy-oil. Exports are forecast at 4.95 million tonnes, down from 5.5 million in 2024-25 but still the third highest on record.
