Statistics Canada is projecting an increase in national all wheat planted area this year, but the jury remains out as producers stare down US trade threats.
The federal agency in a report Wednesday estimated national new-crop all wheat area at 27.475 million acres, up 2.6% from a year earlier. If accurate, it would the largest all wheat planted area since 1997, when 28.605 million acres were planted. In its February supply-demand update, Agriculture Canada estimated new-crop all wheat area at 27.43 million acres.
However, the StatsCan acreage estimates contained in today’s report are based on a survey of 8,200 Canadian farmers between Dec. 13 and Jan. 27 – long before US President Donald Trump moved to levy a 25% tariff on American imports of most Canadian goods, including grains and grain products. That threat has been paused until April 2 but lurks in the background as the planting season draws nearer.
Canada exports over $17 billion worth of grain and grain products to the US each year — a market increasingly threatened by shifting trade policies. As of 2023, Canadian wheat exports to the US alone totaled over $1 billion.
Today’s report pegged new-crop durum area at 6.366 million acres, up fractionally from the previous year and the highest since 2000. Spring wheat area was estimated at 19.42 million, an increase of 2.5% from 2024 but down slightly from 2023. At 1.687 million acres, winter wheat seeded in the fall is up more than 15% on the year and the highest since 2021.
In Saskatchewan, farmers expect total wheat area to remain largely unchanged from 2024, at 14.178 million acres in 2025. Spring wheat area (-0.7% to 8.901 million acres) is anticipated to decrease but could be offset by higher durum wheat area (+0.6% to 5.147 million acres).
Farmers in Alberta anticipate planting 6.6% more wheat in 2025, totalling 8.37 million acres. Spring wheat area is expected to rise 8% to 6.99 million acres, while durum wheat area is anticipated to decrease 0.9% to 1.179 million acres.
Manitoba farmers anticipate planting 3.278 million acres of wheat, up 0.9% from one year earlier.
All wheat area in Ontario is estimated at 1.243 million acres for 2025, up 12% from the previous year. Spring wheat area is forecast to fall to 47,300 acres from 65,100 last year, but winter wheat area for harvest this summer is pegged at 1.183 million, up from 1.008 million in 2024 and the highest since 2021 at 1.187 million.
