Following last week’s dismal initial rating, the condition of the 2025 US winter wheat crop has improved more than expected amid much-needed rainfall in the central Plains.
The weekly USDA crop progress report on Monday pegged the nationwide winter wheat crop at 41% good to excellent as of Sunday. That is up 3 points on the week and topped analyst and trader expectations for a 2-point gain.
However, the condition of the crop remains below last year’s 50% good to excellent rating.
That portion of the 2025 crop rated in poor to very poor condition was also unchanged on the week at 23% - despite the overall week-over-week improvement.
One of the biggest gains was seen in drought-plagued Oklahoma, where the condition of the crop improved by 10 points on the week to 31% good to excellent. The crop in the No. 1 production state of Kansas saw a more modest improvement, up 2 points to 40% good to excellent.
In the Soft Red state of Michigan, the crop improved 3 points on the week to 64% good to excellent, while the Ohio crop experienced a 3-point decline to 68%.
Rain fell over the southern Plains over the weekend, and is forecast to continue this week, moving into the eastern Soft Red areas for the middle of the week.
Better moisture conditions also improved the national planting pace, with 87% of the crop in the ground as of Sunday, up 7 points on the week but still slightly behind last year (88%) and the five-year average of 89%.
In Oklahoma – where planting was lagging badly – an estimated 72% of the crop was in as of Sunday, versus 59% a week earlier, 84% last year and 88% on average. The Kansas crop was 94% planted, up from 87% the previous week and 1 point ahead of average. The Oklahoma crop was just 47% emerged as of Sunday, well behind 73% on average, while Kansas emergence was running 3 points ahead of average at 76%.
The Michigan and Ohio crops were 96% and 95% planted as of Sunday, compared to 89% and 88% a week earlier and 87% and 93% on average. Michigan emergence gained 13 points on the week to 78%, 5 points ahead of average. The Ohio crop was 69% emerged, up from 52% a week earlier but behind 75% on average.
