The weather and market action will still have a major influence on how much spring wheat ultimately gets planted in the US this year, but a decline in acres compared to a year earlier still seems like the most probable outcome, an industry official says.
Following last week’s USDA prospective plantings report which pegged 2025 American spring wheat intentions at 10.02 million acres, down about 600,000 or 6% from a year earlier and potentially the lowest since 1970, Jim Peterson, policy and marketing director for the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said last week he is not expecting any significant change as things stand now.
“It’s pretty clear it would take a notable rally in wheat prices prior to mid-May to reverse these trends,” he said. “It may lessen the level of decrease, but . . .”
Going into last week’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting a decline in spring wheat acres from 2024, but only a modest drop of around 100,000 acres.
Combined with an estimated 2% year-over-year fall in durum area to 2.02 acres and a slight decline in winter wheat acres, the fall in spring wheat intentions puts US all wheat area for 2025 at 45.35 million acres. That is down 2% from 2024 and potentially the second smallest American wheat planted area since records began in 1919.
In the largest production state of North Dakota, spring wheat intentions were reported at 5.05 million acres, down 6% on the year. Montana spring wheat area is also seen lower, down 12% from 2024 at 2.15 million, with Minnesota up 3% at 1.26 million and South Dakota steady at 660,000.
Peterson said there were a few factors that likely discouraged spring wheat acres, including weaker market prices and lower crop insurance levels, especially compared to durum and corn.
Although durum acres are projected to decline at the national level, producers in North Dakota indicated they intend to plant 8% more acres this year compared to 2024 at 1.19 million – stealing some acres away from spring wheat in the western part of the state. On the other hand, durum area in Montana is forecast to decline 14% to 760,000 acres, a drop Peterson at least partially attributed to strong competition from lentils.
In eastern North Dakota, where spring wheat competes with oilseeds and corn, it was corn that apparently won the acreage battle, with statewide acres estimated up 6% to 4.2 million. Meanwhile, soybean and canola acres are both expected to decline in the state, falling 6% and 4%, respectively, to 6.2 million and 2.05 million.
Peterson said wetter conditions in the eastern part of North Dakota during last year’s harvest, which led to some fusarium pressure, also chased some acres out of spring wheat. And while last year’s spring wheat yields were good, discounts for lower protein levels further dented producer returns and new-crop enthusiasm, he said.
Since tariff and trade issues are likely to impact most or all agricultural commodities, Peterson said he doesn’t believe producers based any of their spring planting decisions on those potential disruptions.
Monday’s USDA crop progress report showed an estimated 3% of the 2025 US spring wheat crop planted as of Sunday, on par with both last year and the five-year average.
