Declining income expectations dragged US farmer sentiment to its lowest in more than eight years in September.
Released Tuesday, the latest monthly Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index showed a reading of 88 points, down 12 points from August and the lowest since March 2016, when the farm economy was in the throes of another economic downturn. Farmer sentiment is now lower than it was during the barometer’s base period of late 2015/early 2016 when farm incomes were “very weak.”
Poor commodity prices - combined with high input costs - were key problems cited by survey respondents in September.
When asked specifically about their biggest concerns for the upcoming year, low commodity prices and high input costs were locked in a virtual dead heat in September as the top two worries for the upcoming year. Thirty-four percent of farmers in the survey chose input prices as a top concern, while 33% chose lower output prices as their biggest concern. Trailing output and input prices as a key concern among producers was interest rates, selected by 17% of respondents.
Producer concern about commodity prices was backed up by their lack of confidence in the future of U.S. agricultural exports. Just 26% of respondents said they expect US agricultural exports to rise over the next five years. Dating back to 2019, when the same question was first posed, this was the least optimistic perspective offered by farmers regarding agricultural exports in a barometer survey.
In a related question, 78% of producers in the September survey also said they are concerned that following the fall 2024 elections, there will be government policy changes that affect their farms.
The ag economy barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 producers across the country. The September barometer survey was carried out Sept. 9 –13.
