The USDA left its 2024-25 US corn supply-demand estimates unchanged from last month, but it did continue to tighten its world outlook and trimmed China’s imports amid the start of a trade war.
Released Tuesday, the government’s March supply-demand update kept projected old-crop US corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bu - down from 1.763 billion in 2023-24 - with the season average price forecast also steady at $4.35/bu, 20 cents lower on the year. On the other hand, world corn ending stocks for 2024-25 were dropped about 1.4 million tonnes from February to 288.94 million, almost 8% below the previous year’s 313.95 million and below 304.83 million in 2022-23.
Going into today’s report, most traders and analysts were expecting a reduction in the US corn ending stocks estimate to 1.516 billion. However, the reduction in global corn ending stocks was deeper than expected, with the average trade guess coming in at 289.9 million tonnes. Corn futures were trading 1-2 cents higher following the report’s noon hour ET release.
As expected, today’s report reflects the opening salvos in US President Donald Trump’s trade wars, including American tariffs on China, and China’s retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which include a 15% levy on corn. It does not reflect any American trade action against Canadian and Mexico goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement – which includes most ag products - as those planned 25% tariffs have been delayed until April. Likewise, US reciprocal tariffs are not scheduled to begin until early April.
Canada’s March 4 retaliatory tariffs against $30 billion in US goods remain in place, and are accounted for in the report, although there appears to be little to no impact on actual ag supply-demand dynamics.
China’s corn imports for 2024-25 were lowered 2 million tonnes from last month to 8 million, further below the previous year’s 23.4 million.
Foreign corn production was revised higher this month, thanks to increases for India, Russia, and Ukraine, which were partly offset by declines for South Africa and Mexico. Argentina and Brazil corn production was left steady from last month at 50 million and 126 million tonnes, respectively. Argentina exports were unchanged at 36 million tonnes, but expected Brazil shipments were trimmed 2 million from February to 44 million.
Ukraine corn production was revised 300,000 tonnes higher from February to 26.8 million tonnes, with projected exports steady at 22 million.
