The USDA has tightened its 2024-25 US and world wheat outlooks from last month.
In its regular monthly supply-demand update on Tuesday, the USDA lowered its US wheat ending stocks estimate by 4 million bu from January to 794 million, still well above 696 million in 2023-24. Meanwhile, global stocks dropped 1.3 million tonnes from last month to 257.6 million, below the previous year’s 267.49 million.
Going into today’s report, traders and analysts were expecting little change in either US or global wheat ending stocks compared to January. Wheat futures were trading slightly weaker this afternoon, down anywhere from ½ to 1 ¾ cents/bu.
The fall in the US wheat ending stocks estimate was due to a 4-million bu increase in domestic food use, which was revised up to 970 million bu. The wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter was up 2% from last year as indicated in the Flour Milling Products report, the USDA said.
World wheat production ticked slightly higher this month, rising to 793.79 million tonnes from 793.24 million in January, amid larger production for Argentina and Kazakhstan. The Argentina crop was raised 200,000 tonnes from last month to 17.7 million, while the Kazakhstan crop up nearly 600,000 tonnes to 18.58 million.
Meanwhile, global wheat consumption is increased 1.8 million tonnes this month to 803.7 million on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine.
Argentina and Kazakhstan wheat exports were left steady from last month at 11.5 million and 10 million tonnes, respectively, but projected Russia and Ukraine shipments were both trimmed 500,000 tonnes from January to 45.5 million and 15.5 million. For those two countries, that represents a significant decline in exports from 55.5 million and 18.5 million in 2023-24.
The largest import change is a decrease for China of 2.5 million tonnes from last month to 8 million on a “continued sluggish import pace.” If accurate, China’s 2024-25 wheat imports would be down from 13.64 million in 2023-24, when it was the world’s largest importer. It would also mark the lowest wheat imports for China in five years.
The estimated season-average farm price for wheat is unchanged this month at $5.55/bu, down from $6.96 in 2023-24.
