Warm and increasingly dry Prairie conditions appear to have taken the top of the 2024 Canadian canola crop.
Released Monday, Statistics Canada’s second round of model-based production estimates pegged the national canola crop at 18.98 million tonnes. That is down from the federal agency’s initial estimate of 19.501 million at the end of August and now 1.1% below a year earlier. However, the crop remains up from the 2022 harvest of 18.849 million.
“Across parts of the Prairies, lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures have resulted in a decline in crop conditions from the beginning of the season. . .” StatsCan said.
Today’s production estimates are based satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, and reflect conditions as of the end of August. StatsCan’s first set of model-based estimates, released Aug. 28, reflected conditions as of the end of July. StatsCan’s final crop production estimates, to be released in December, will be based on a survey of farmers.
With expected 2024 canola harvested area unchanged from the August report at 21.807 million acres – down marginally from 21.885 in 2023 – today’s entire decline in production is due to a lower national average yield, at 38.4 bu/acre. That is 1 bu below the August estimate, and down slightly from the revised 2023 average of 38.7 bu.
If accurate, that would be the lowest national canola yield since 2014 at 34.9 bu/acre, excluding the drought year of 2021, when the average fell to just 28.4 bu.
Saskatchewan canola production is now estimated at 10.283 million tonnes, down from 10.628 million in August and 0.4% below the previous year. At 37.7 bu/acre, the average yield was trimmed from 39 bu/acre last month but is still up from 37 bu last year.
Production in Alberta is projected at 5.469 million tonnes, down from 5.698 million in August and 1.7% below a year ago. At 38.3 bu/acre, the average provincial canola yield was lowered from 39.9 bu in August is down from 39.1 bu in 2023.
In Manitoba, the canola crop is seen at 3.062 million tonnes, up ever so slightly from 3.010 million in August, as the average yield was bumped up to 41 bu/acre from 40.3 bu in August. If accurate, Manitoba canola production would still be down 2.2% on the year, and the average yield below 44.3 bu in 2023.
