The Canadian dry pea outlook for both 2024-25 and 2025-26 is heavier this month, while the lentil situation has tightened slightly.
Old-crop pea ending stocks were pegged at 425,000 tonnes in updated monthly supply-demand estimates released by Agriculture Canada on Wednesday. That is up 100,000 tonnes from the January forecast and further above the previous year’s 299,000. With the larger carryin from the old-crop year, 2025-26 ending stocks were likewise revised 100,000 tonnes higher from January to 475,000.
Meanwhile, projected 2024-25 lentil ending stocks were revised 10,000 tonnes lower from January to 340,000 – up from 165,000 in 2023-24 - with 2025-26 stocks down 30,000 to 335,000.
This month’s increase in the 2024-25 pea ending stocks estimate is due to a 100,000-tonne cut from January in expected domestic use, which falls to 532,000, versus 586,000 a year earlier.
The February supply-demand estimates reflect Statistics Canada’s Feb. 7 grain stocks report, which put total national dry pea stocks as of Dec. 31, 2024 at 1.686 million tonnes, down 10.6% on the year and the lowest since the 2021 drought year at 1.593 million.
For lentils, the decline in 2024-25 ending stocks is due to a 10,000-tonne increase in the import estimate which was more than offset by a 20,000-tonne upward revision in projected domestic use to 266,000 tonnes. On the new-crop side, Ag Canada raised its domestic use estimate by 20,000 tonnes to go along with the smaller carryin from 2024-25.
The Feb. 7 grains tocks report pegged total nationwide lentil stocks as of the end of last year at 1.59 million tonnes, up 38% from the year-ago level of 1.15 million and the heaviest for the date since 2020 at 1.861 million.
Ag Canada left its old- and new-crop pea price forecasts unchanged from last month at $425 and $400/tonne, respectively, while lentils were held steady as well at $835 and $755.
