Early baseline projections suggest American farmers will plant more corn and fewer soybeans in 2025, with wheat area little changed.
Released by the USDA last week, the projections put nationwide new-crop corn planted area at 92 million acres, up 1.4% from the 90.7 million acres planted in 2024. On the other hand, soybean planted area is seen at 85 million acres, down 2.4% from this year's acreage of 87.1 million. All wheat area is seen at 46 million acres, only slightly below the 46.1 million planted in 2024.
The early projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during August through October 2024. More complete baseline projections, reflecting specific assumptions about macroeconomic conditions, policy, weather, and international developments, will be released in February.
With the 2025 average yield expected lower – down 1.1 bu/acre to 182 bu – national corn production is estimated at 15.305 billion bu, up about 1.1% from this year’s crop of 15.143 billion. Total use is seen bumping up to 15.06 billion from 14.99 billion, with 2025-26 ending stocks pegged at 2.269 billion bu compared to the 1.938 billion estimated for this year in the USDA’s November supply-demand update.
The 2024-25 average corn price is estimated at US$3.90/bu, down from the current 2024-25 estimate of $4.10.
For soybeans, the average yield is pegged at 52.5 bu/acre for 2025, up from this year’s average of 51.7 bu, but with production declining to 4.42 billion bu from 4.461 billion. Total use is seen increasing to 4.47 billion bu from 4.348 billion in 2024-25, and ending stocks rising to 515 million bu from the 470 million now forecast for this year.
At $10/bu, the 2025-26 average soybean price is estimated down 80 cents from the 2024-25 forecast.
With a smaller planted area and a projected 1.1 bu/acre decrease in the 2025 average yield to 50.1 bu/acre, US wheat production in 2025 is estimated at 1.884 billion, down 4.4% from the 2024 crop of 1.971 billion. Total new-crop wheat use is seen inching up to 1.988 billion bu from 1.973 billion in 2024-25, but with ending stocks still up slightly to 828 million bu from this year’s currently estimated 815 million.
The 2025-26 season average wheat price is forecast at $5.80, a 20-cent improvement over the projection for 2024-25.
