Notwithstanding trade and tariff uncertainty, the wheat market may turn out to be a pleasant surprise for producers in 2025-26.
And dryness in US hard Red Winter country could be one of the main reasons why prices have the potential to move higher.
After some American producers planted into dust last fall, ample precipitation in November dramatically improved the fortunes of the crop heading into the winter. Monthly condition ratings released through the winter were mixed for the main HRW production states but remained generally satisfactory. For example, the crop in the largest winter wheat production state of Kansas was pegged at 54% good to excellent as of the end of February, up 4 points from January and nearly back on par with the late November rating of 55%.
But weather concerns are creeping back in. In a presentation at last month’s USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, government meteorologist Brad Rippey said that after some US drought recovery in 2024, dryness has returned to much of the country following below-normal precipitation in December, January, and February.
The two main affected areas, he said, are the upper Midwest and the northern Plains, where the bulk of the US spring wheat and durum crops are grown, as well as the southwest and the southern Plains – the prime winter wheat area. With the HRW crop breaking dormancy, more moisture is needed, Rippey said.
“We’re starting to see short-term drought coming back.”
As of Tuesday, more than 86% of Kansas was being impacted by abnormal dryness or some form of drought, almost 10 points from a week earlier and the highest since late October/early November.
Meanwhile, the outlook does not appear promising. Portions of the southern Plains were being blasted by 60-80 mph winds today, which were further eroding soil moisture. More high winds are expected again next week, said World Weather, which warned that wildly swinging temperatures - with a freeze expected on Sunday - are doing no favours for the crop either.
Portions of the 2025 US winter wheat crop were also hit with at least of couple of bouts of frigid temperatures over the winter, which means good spring moisture is even more critical in getting the crop back on a more solid footing, World Weather added.
The latest seasonal drought outlook from the US Climate Prediction Center (see below), which covers the period out until May 31, indicates the likelihood of drought development across the western halves of both Kansas and Oklahoma, along with a good portion of Texas.
